My $1 Million Climate Model Bet

My $1 Million Climate Model Bet | Scott Adams’ Blog

It’s not Science and it really works. It’s lying by telling the truth, just part of the truth. It reminds me of how the Genie tricks the rube who rubs the lamp. Be careful of what you ask for and who you believe.

“I will bet anyone $1 million dollars that I can come up with a climate forecast model that ignores C02 and still predicts the temperature 30 years from now to within half a degree. Does anyone want to take that bet?

Obviously there is a trick involved, so I won’t accept your bet for ethical reasons. But let’s see if you can figure out how I could win that bet every time.

I am 100% confident I can build a climate prediction model, using my current skill set, that will predict the measured temperature in 30 years to within half a degree.

Furthermore, you can pick whatever measurement type and place you want for the bet. My trick does not depend on doing anything clever with the measurement itself.”

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